INDIANAPOLIS — The stage is set.
The expectations are clear.
One season after coming up a few yards short of a surprising playoff berth, the Colts believe they have a team that can take the next step with a healthy Anthony Richardson at the helm in 2024.
“We should legitimately be competing for the division and playoffs,” Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard said shortly after the 2023 season came to an end. “That’s really our expectation every year, but I think that is really possible here going forward.”
Indianapolis believes deeply in Richardson’s potential, along with the possibilities the dynamic quarterback’s skill set and a healthy Jonathan Taylor opens for an offense that finished in a tie for 10th in the NFL in scoring at 23.3 points per game last season despite losing Richardson for most of the season.
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Defensively, the Colts believe the first-round selection of Laiatu Latu will take the pass rush to the next level, pairing with a secondary Indianapolis is hoping will be better ready to hold up its end of the bargain against a schedule that features a much better list of quarterbacks than the string of backups the Colts played last season.
“I think we’re right there,” Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen said at the end of his first year in charge of the Colts. “But every year is a new year, so we’ve got to rebuild it again next and have that laser focus every single day. … We’ve got to be all over it. But I do, I think we’re right on the cusp of something really special here.”
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Here’s predictions from IndyStar Colts Insiders Joel A. Erickson and Nate Atkins for every game.
Week 1, Sept. 8: Houston Texans, 1 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (1-0): Colts 28, Texans 26
Indianapolis famously has not opened the season with a win in a decade, and this time they’ve been handled the tough task of knocking off everybody’s offseason darlings, a Houston team that has won its last two games at Lucas Oil Stadium. But all streaks must come to an end, and the Colts deal the offseason narratives a blow with Richardson out-dueling Stroud in the red zone to get the win.
Atkins (0-1): Texans 38, Colts 31
The Colts have an opener drought to try to end here, but the matchup is not in their favor. In the Week 18 de facto AFC South championship game last season, C.J. Stroud averaged 11.7 yards per attempt, and Indianapolis has returned Julian Blackmon since that game but has not made any other changes to the secondary. Meanwhile, Houston has returned Tank Dell from injury and added four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs. Diggs and Stroud get their connection off with a bang, fueling a 126-yard game for Diggs that includes a 44-yard touchdown pass in the middle of the fourth quarter that is too much for a young Anthony Richardson to counter.
Week 2, Sept. 15: at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m., Lambeau Field
Erickson (1-1): Packers 35, Colts 31
A young, developing Indianapolis secondary faces a reality check in the Lambeau Field opener, struggling to keep up with Green Bay’s deep fleet of wide receivers and Jordan Love’s penchant for pushing the ball downfield.
Atkins (1-1): Colts 27, Packers 26
Desperate to avoid a 0-2 hole, the Colts unleash a backfield duo of Richardson and Jonathan Taylor that has the rust knocked off. Matt Gay hits a 53-yard field goal to earn a late lead, and Laiatu Latu seals the game with a sack on 3rd-and-7 to show the NFL he's arrived.
Week 3, Sept. 22: Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (2-1): Colts 23, Bears 17
Chicago has a shiny new toy at quarterback in Caleb Williams and a cadre of big-name receivers around him, but the rookie is going to take some time to develop. Under siege all day from DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu, Williams can’t come up with enough plays against a Colts offense that piles up yards against former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’s bend-but-don’t-break system.
Atkins: (1-2): Bears 33, Colts 28
The Colts begin the season with three talented young quarterbacks and loaded receiving corps. Like Indianapolis, Chicago has some element of surprise to its offense around Caleb Williams, and indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, he and Richardson put on a show. Williams makes one more play than Richardson in this one, scrambling out of a DeForest Buckner pressure before resetting and finding D.J. Moore on a broken 37-yard touchdown with less than a minute to go.
Week 4, Sept. 29: Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (3-1): Colts 31, Steelers 13
Indianapolis blew the doors off the Steelers at Lucas Oil last season, and the addition of Russell Wilson doesn’t move the needle enough to give Pittsburgh a fighting chance in the rematch. Four games into the season, the Richardson-Taylor combination has produced an explosive, dynamic running game.
Atkins (2-2): Colts 28, Steelers 14
The Colts finally get a break from facing quarterbacks who are good and young. The pass rush feasts on Russell Wilson, resulting in interceptions by Kenny Moore II and Julian Blackmon, and the run game replicates the dominant performance it had against the Steelers last season in a comfortable win.
Week 5, Oct. 6: at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., Everbank Stadium
Erickson (3-2): Jaguars 24, Colts 14
Only one streak comes to an end in 2024, as the Colts remain embroiled in whatever curse the city of Jacksonville has placed on its visitors from Indianapolis, leading to another ugly, momentum-killing loss that doesn’t fit the way the Colts had been playing.
Atkins (2-3): Jaguars 30, Colts 13
The streak in Jacksonville stays alive as well, as a bad matchup turns into a frustrating day. Trevor Lawrence attempts 35 passes and throws quick to beat the pass rush, and Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis prove too difficult to. cover. Richardson tries to answer but gets in trouble with some back-breaking turnovers, and the heat rises on Indianapolis after another tough day in Jacksonville.
Week 6, Oct. 13: at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., Nissan Stadium
Erickson (4-2): Colts 33, Titans 17
Tennessee made some headlines with attention-grabbing acquisitions this offseason, but the reality is this Titans team is still in flux, breaking in quarterback Will Levis while trying to find its identity under new head coach Brian Callahan. Richardson rips through the defense, picking up his second win of the season over a quarterback from his draft class.
Atkins (3-3): Colts 30, Titans 27
The Colts badly need a win here and go on the road against a Titans team that always tends to give them their best game. That happens again in moments, with Will Levis trading turnovers for explosive plays to Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Michael Pittman Jr. puts the team on his back like he did on this field a year ago, taking two slant passes to the house to allow Indianapolis to score a crucial victory.
Week 7, Oct. 20: Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (4-3): Dolphins 38, Colts 35
Indianapolis tears through a vulnerable Miami defense, but the speed the Dolphins have assembled at wide receiver prove too much for a young, improving secondary to handle, leading to a late Tyreek Hill touchdown to give Miami the win in a shootout.
Atkins (3-4): Dolphins 45, Colts 31
The Colts return home in good spirits about their offense, which now looks balanced and explosive. But a pair of defensive back injuries can send a secondary with five total cornerbacks into an early season scramble mode, and that happens at a tough time with a dome game against the most explosive wide receiver duo in America. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Wadde and running back Devon Achane rip off a number of explosive plays to give Tua Tagovailoa an easy day of quick passes and dump-offs, and despite a strong early start from Taylor and Richardson, the Colts have to abandon the run game to keep up and it doesn't work out.
Week 8, Oct. 27: at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., NRG Stadium
Erickson (4-4): Texans 28, Colts 21
Stroud gets his revenge at home, getting the ball out of his hands quickly enough to neutralize the pass rush and take advantage of his deep, rebuilt wide receiving corps, while Houston’s overhauled defensive line comes in with a better plan against Richardson and Taylor in the rematch.
Atkins (3-5): Texans 30, Colts 27
The secondary issues spill into another brutal matchup, this time on the road in a dome where Stroud replicates the same game plan from Week 18 last season and Week 1 this season. Taylor rips off a monster game like he often does against Houston, giving the Colts a lead they're not quite able to hang onto before the Texans nail a 36-yard field goal as time expires.
Week 9, Nov. 3: at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., U.S. Bank Stadium
Erickson (5-4): Colts 34, Vikings 13
Disaster struck in the Twin Cities in 2022, but these are very different teams, and at this point, the Colts offense is far too explosive for a Sam Darnold-led Minnesota attack to match.
Atkins (4-5): Colts 24, Vikings 14
Minnesota's defense under Brian Flores is better than people realize, but the offense is hamstrung by youth and a backup quarterback in Sam Darnold. The Colts need to circle the wagons badly after a couple of rough performances and put together a dominant defensive game where they force four turnovers.
Week 10, Nov. 10: Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (5-5): Bills 23, Colts 21
Buffalo’s roster has taken some hits this offseason, but Josh Allen is still in charge of the Bills offense, and his unique combination of explosive plays and toughness in the pocket end up pulling out a win over an Indianapolis team still recovering from playing four of its last five games on the road.
Atkins (4-6): Bills 31, Colts 30
The Colts get back to Lucas Oil Stadium and back to the shootouts. Josh Allen doesn't have the same weapons around him, and for a while, Indianapolis keeps him in check and rides Taylor to a solid lead against a defense missing Matt Milano. But then Allen goes into hero mode and hits some explosive out-of-structure plays to win the game with no time remaining.
Week 11, Nov. 17: at New York Jets, 8:20 p.m., MetLife Stadium (Sunday Night Football)
Erickson (6-5): Colts 20, Jets 17
A 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles tendon is bound to be less mobile than he was in the past, and his tendency to hold onto the ball in the pocket in an effort to produce big plays ends up playing right into the hands of the Indianapolis defensive line. The Colts pound Rodgers into the turf, allowing Indianapolis to win a hard-fought game in prime time.
Atkins (5-6): Colts 24, Jets 18
The Colts get back to holding their own on defense, with JuJu Brents emerging as the outside cornerback this team needs him to be. The Jets often become a mess by this stage in the season, and the Colts pass rush tees off on a 40-year-old recovering Aaron Rodgers to force an erratic day in the pouring rain.
Week 12, Nov. 24: Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (6-6): Lions 30, Colts 24
Whatever Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson are doing in Detroit, it’s working, and the well-oiled Lions machine — still feels weird to say that — shows the Colts defense it still has some work to do with the bye week looming to make a playoff push.
Atkins (5-7): Lions 42, Colts 34
Another shootout arrives to Lucas Oil Stadium as the Lions come in with a loaded and balanced offense that presents a difficult matchup when the Colts' pass rush can't manhandle a stout offensive line. Richardson plays one of his best games as a pro to lead a double-digit comeback but ultimately can't shake an Aidan Hutchinson rush on 3rd-and-9 to end the game.
Week 13, Dec. 1: at New England Patriots, 1 p.m., Gillette Stadium
Erickson (7-6): Colts 27, Patriots 10
For the first time in a long, long time, the Colts-Patriots rivalry does not have any of its old players now that Bill Belichick is gone, and in a bit of a theme for the 2024 season, the Colts exorcise the leftover Gillette Stadium demons from 2022, pounding the draft’s No. 3 pick, Drake Maye, in the pocket.
Atkins (6-7): Colts 28, Patriots 7
Indianapolis is starting to form an identity on defense as a unit that can pulverize young or struggling quarterbacks in the right matchups. That happens again as Kenny Moore gets his revenge on the team that once cut him with two pick-sixes, reminiscent of his game in Carolina last year.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15, Dec. 14: at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., Empower Field at Mile High
Erickson (8-6): Colts 38, Broncos 16
Indianapolis keeps feasting on the first-round class of 2024 quarterbacks, rolling behind an early Kenny Moore pick-six off Bo Nix and an offense that takes full advantage of a Denver defense that has been heavily depleted by salary-cap moves the last couple of seasons.
Atkins (7-7): Colts 33, Broncos 20
It's a similar script as these recent games; Bo Nix can make some plays with his legs but turns it over too much while constantly trying to avoid the rushes of Latu, Buckner, Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo. Taylor turns in a masterful performance as the Colts cruise to victory.
Week 16, Dec. 22: Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (9-6): Colts 27, Titans 20
By this point in the season, Richardson has come into his own, shaking off some of the mistakes he made early, and the finishing stretch is ripe for the picking, as the Colts beat up Levis again to put themselves firmly in the chase for the playoffs.
Atkins (8-7): Colts 34, Titans 20
The Colts run game is humming by this stage, so much so that Taylor is able to miss a game to wear and tear and Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson step in and combine for 148 yards and three touchdowns as the Titans defense converges on Richardson every play and pays the price.
Week 17: at New York Giants, time and date TBD, MetLife Stadium
Erickson (10-6): Colts 31, Giants 14
The Indianapolis defense struggled with some of the better quarterbacks on its schedule in the first half of the season, but by now, the Colts have proven they can take advantage of young or uncertain quarterback situations, and Indianapolis rolls against a New York team unable to produce much offense.
Atkins (9-7): Colts 26, Giants 16
The Colts handle another up-and-down offense that is able to generate some big plays to Malik Nabers but also gives up eight sacks, including one to Moore on a nickel blitz and even one to Grover Stewart on second down. Taylor returns to action in a big way and has the Colts thinking playoffs for a second straight season.
Week 18: Jacksonville Jaguars, time and date TBD, Lucas Oil Stadium
Erickson (11-6): Colts 28, Jaguars 24
Faced with another win-and-in opportunity, the Colts lean on Taylor, who responds with another brilliant performance in a do-or-die game to crush Jacksonville, knock the Jaguars out of the playoffs and send Indianapolis into the postseason for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Atkins (9-8): Jaguars 30, Colts 27
With another Week 18 home game against an AFC South foe, the Colts give everything they have with Steichen rolling out a number of trick plays, including a flea-flicker touchdown pass to E.J. Speed. Richardson plays his cleanest game as a pro, but the run game isn't quite as smooth, and it leaves the door open for Lawrence to use his quick passing game for a killer drive for a touchdown with less than a minute remaining. The Colts still feel like they have something in their young quarterback and carry that momentum into the wildcard round the next week for their first playoff game since 2020.
